Trans-Kalahari Railway Moves From Feasibility to the Harder Question of Finance
After more than a decade of bilateral planning, Botswana and Namibia are moving the Trans-Kalahari Railway towards procurement, bringing one of Southern Africa’s most ambitious proposed freight corridors closer to the point where engineering feasibility must be converted into a commercially viable railway.
The proposed route would connect Botswana’s mineral-producing regions with Namibia’s Port of Walvis Bay, providing a westward rail outlet to the Atlantic and an alternative to established export routes through Southern Africa. Coal was central to the railway’s original rationale, but the freight proposition has broadened considerably to encompass copper, iron ore, fuel, cement and containerised cargo.
A railway stretching roughly 1,500 to 1,850 km, depending on how the corridor and existing infrastructure are counted, requires substantial and dependable freight volumes. Recent estimates of its capital cost also vary markedly, ranging from around US$8 billion in some procurement reporting to approximately US$16 billion in Botswana reporting following completion of the latest feasibility work.
The full final feasibility study has not yet been publicly released, leaving important questions around traffic forecasts, capital costs and the preferred financial structure unanswered. Botswana and Namibia are also increasingly positioning the railway as the backbone of a broader economic corridor incorporating logistics, industrial and energy development.
Briefing
- Botswana and Namibia are advancing the Trans-Kalahari Railway towards procurement following completion of recent feasibility work.
- The proposed corridor would connect Botswana’s mineral regions with Namibia and the Port of Walvis Bay.
- Published estimates put the corridor at approximately 1,500 to 1,850 km, while recent capital cost estimates range from roughly US$8 billion to US$16 billion.
- Coal, copper, iron ore, fuel, cement and containerised cargo are among the freight markets being considered.
- A public-private partnership concession is being developed, with financing and dependable freight volumes likely to determine whether the project proceeds.
A Railway More Than a Decade in Development
The Trans-Kalahari Railway has a considerably longer history than its latest procurement activity might suggest. Botswana and Namibia signed the bilateral agreement underpinning the project in March 2014, following earlier investigations into a railway across the Kalahari towards the Namibian coast.
The project gained renewed momentum in September 2023 with an international Expression of Interest process, followed by further procurement work to prepare comprehensive Request for Proposal documentation. In March 2025, Botswana confirmed that CPCS Transcom UK had been selected to undertake the latest feasibility study. The work was completed in July 2026 and subsequently considered by the two governments through their Joint Ministerial Committee.
Demonstrating that a railway can technically cross Botswana and Namibia is one challenge. Determining whether investors, lenders, freight customers and governments can support the enormous capital commitment required to build and operate it is another. The governments are considering a PPP concession rather than conventional state-funded construction, with earlier procurement documentation envisaging private-sector participation covering funding, design, construction, ownership and operation before eventual transfer.
From the Copperbelt to Walvis Bay
The proposed corridor would create a heavy-haul freight route across Botswana towards Namibia, connecting with the Namibian railway network and continuing towards Walvis Bay.
Earlier project descriptions have commonly placed the railway at around 1,500 km, including a route from the Mmamabula area towards the Namibian network. More recent project material has referred to an approximately 1,850 km corridor. The difference appears partly related to how the wider network, existing infrastructure and required upgrades are defined, although the unpublished final feasibility study means the latest route configuration cannot yet be independently established in detail.
The technical concept has previously envisaged Cape gauge, consistent with much of the existing railway infrastructure in Botswana and Namibia, although procurement documentation allowed the feasibility process to reconsider gauge and other fundamental engineering assumptions.
Much of the early economic case was built around Botswana’s substantial coal resources. Mmamabula and other deposits offered the prospect of the large bulk volumes capable of underpinning a heavy-haul railway, while Walvis Bay offered direct access to Atlantic shipping.
The freight proposition has since widened to include copper, iron ore, petroleum products, cement and containers. A broader traffic base could reduce reliance upon a single commodity, but a diversified railway still needs sufficient anchor volumes to support its fixed costs. Mining projects have their own development schedules, commodity markets fluctuate, and prospective freight cannot automatically be treated as contracted railway traffic.
The Cost Question
One of the largest unresolved issues is the scale of the investment itself.ย Recent infrastructure procurement reporting has placed the Trans-Kalahari Railway at approximately US$8 billion, matching the figure currently associated with the approximately 1,850 km corridor. Botswana reporting following completion of the latest feasibility study has, however, cited a substantially larger figure of around US$16 billion, or approximately P220 billion.
The difference is too large to dismiss as routine variation between early estimates. It may reflect different route definitions, infrastructure scope, escalation, port or supporting works, or assumptions introduced during the feasibility study. Without publication of the final study, attributing the discrepancy to any particular cause would be speculative.
Higher capital expenditure would require greater freight volumes, higher tariffs, longer concession periods, more government support or some combination of these. The structure must also accommodate construction risk across a railway extending through sparsely populated territory and operating over considerable distances.
Botswana and Namibia therefore have more to establish than a procurement timetable. The PPP project finance framework, regulatory arrangements and concession structure will have to attract private capital while remaining workable for the governments and freight customers expected to use the railway.
Building a Development Corridor
Botswana has increasingly discussed the Trans-Kalahari Railway in conjunction with logistics hubs, industrial clusters, energy infrastructure and trade zones. Instead of relying solely upon existing industries to generate traffic, development along the corridor could create additional freight demand.
The railway would serve mineral and industrial activity, while improved transport capacity could make new mining, processing and manufacturing investment more commercially attractive. For a landlocked economy, transport costs can influence where commodities are processed as well as how they are exported, bringing beneficiation, warehousing, fuel distribution and regional logistics into the wider development equation.
The existing Trans-Kalahari road corridor already connects Botswana with Namibia and Walvis Bay, providing an established trade route onto which rail capacity could eventually be layered. The longer-term proposition is therefore increasingly multimodal, combining road, rail, logistics facilities and maritime access rather than treating the railway as an isolated piece of infrastructure.
Walvis Bay at the Atlantic End
Botswana already maintains a logistics presence at Walvis Bay through Sea Rail Botswana, a wholly owned subsidiary of Botswana Railways. Its dry-port operation provides the landlocked country with dedicated facilities at the Namibian port, including container, vehicle and warehousing capacity.
For Namibia, the larger opportunity is to establish Walvis Bay more firmly as an Atlantic gateway for inland Southern Africa. Namport’s long-term development plans for the North Port of Walvis Bay envisage major increases in bulk handling and terminal capacity, including proposals for dry-bulk facilities capable of handling more than 100 million tonnes annually alongside new berths and high-capacity transport connections.
The Trans-Kalahari Railway and prospective Botswana coal exports have been identified among the drivers for that expansion. A successful heavy-haul corridor would require sufficient capacity at the maritime end to receive trains, stockpile commodities and transfer them efficiently into vessels. Investment in major new bulk facilities at Walvis Bay, in turn, becomes easier to justify if substantial inland cargo flows can be secured.
Neither piece of infrastructure exists in isolation from the volumes expected to support the other. That relationship will become particularly important if railway and port investment are developed on different schedules or depend upon overlapping assumptions about future mineral exports.
More Than One Route to the Sea
Botswana’s railway strategy extends beyond the Trans-Kalahari corridor. The country has also been pursuing potential rail connections towards South Africa, Zambia and the eastern seaboard, including the proposed Mmamabula-Lephalale connection into South Africa, the Mosetse-Kazungula-Livingstone route towards Zambia and improved access towards Zimbabwe and Mozambique.
Together, these projects point towards a broader attempt to reduce the structural transport constraints facing a landlocked economy. Multiple functioning corridors would give mines, manufacturers and logistics operators choices between ports and markets, provide resilience when infrastructure is constrained or disrupted and potentially create competitive pressure between routes.
The Trans-Kalahari Railway would add direct rail access towards an Atlantic gateway through a neighbouring country with which Botswana already maintains an established road corridor and port presence. Namibia gains freight generated far inland that could support the expansion of Walvis Bay and its wider ambitions as a Southern African logistics gateway.
Procurement Before Construction
Completion of feasibility work removes one hurdle, but construction is not imminent. The governments still need to settle the PPP framework, regulatory approvals, procurement arrangements and financial structure before private-sector participants can determine whether the traffic forecasts and proposed concession provide an acceptable balance between investment and risk.
There is currently no definitive construction start date. For a project that has already spent more than a decade moving through bilateral agreements, studies and development planning, the next milestone is not a ceremonial ground-breaking but the emergence of a bankable concession capable of surviving scrutiny from infrastructure investors and lenders.
Publication of the final feasibility study should provide much of the information needed to make that judgement and could clarify the competing route-length and capital-cost figures currently circulating around the project.
If Botswana and Namibia can resolve those questions, the Trans-Kalahari Railway could become more than another route for mineral exports. Combined with Walvis Bay, existing road infrastructure and industrial development along the corridor, it could form part of a larger logistics system linking inland Southern Africa with Atlantic trade. The engineering concept is established, but the commercial structure still has to prove that the trains can pay for the track.
Key Industry Questions
- What is the Trans-Kalahari Railway?ย The Trans-Kalahari Railway is a proposed heavy-haul freight corridor linking Botswana through Namibia with the Port of Walvis Bay, providing Botswana with an additional rail route to international maritime markets.
- How long would the Trans-Kalahari Railway be?ย Published descriptions vary. Recent material has referred to an approximately 1,850 km corridor, while other descriptions following the latest feasibility work have cited around 1,500 km. The difference may partly depend upon the route and existing railway infrastructure included within the project definition.
- How much will the Trans-Kalahari Railway cost?ย Current published estimates vary significantly. Some sources place investment at around US$8 billion, while Botswana reporting following completion of the latest feasibility study has cited approximately US$16 billion. The final publicly confirmed project cost remains to be established.
- What freight would the railway carry?ย Potential freight includes coal, copper, iron ore, fuel, cement and containerised cargo. Large and dependable bulk commodity volumes are likely to be particularly important to the economics of a heavy-haul railway.
- Why is Walvis Bay important to Botswana?ย Walvis Bay provides Botswana with access to Atlantic shipping without requiring freight to move through South African ports. Botswana already operates a dry-port facility there through Sea Rail Botswana.
- How would the railway be financed?ย Botswana and Namibia are considering a public-private partnership concession. The eventual structure is expected to involve substantial private-sector participation in financing, construction and operation.
- Has construction of the Trans-Kalahari Railway started?ย No. The project is moving towards procurement following feasibility work, but financing, regulatory approvals and the final PPP and procurement arrangements still have to be established.
- Why has the project taken so long?ย The scale of the corridor, capital requirements, cross-border regulatory arrangements and need to establish sufficient long-term freight demand make the Trans-Kalahari Railway substantially more complex than a conventional railway construction contract.
- Is the Trans-Kalahari Railway only intended for coal?ย No. Coal was an important part of the original rationale, but the proposed freight base now includes other minerals, fuel, cement and containers, while the governments increasingly view the railway as part of a broader industrial and logistics corridor.
Strategic Takeaways
- Completion of feasibility work moves the Trans-Kalahari Railway into a commercial and financial phase in which freight commitments and concession terms become as important as engineering.
- The difference between published US$8 billion and US$16 billion investment estimates needs clarification before the project’s financing requirements can be properly assessed.
- A broader mixture of minerals, industrial freight and containers could reduce dependence on coal, but prospective cargo is not equivalent to guaranteed railway revenue.
- Botswana’s existing dry-port presence and Namibia’s expansion plans at Walvis Bay give the proposed railway a wider logistics framework at its Atlantic terminus.
- Botswana’s development of several international rail corridors suggests a longer-term strategy based on export-route diversity rather than dependence upon a single gateway.
